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EOSS Balloon Flight Prediction

Prediction pages 07/23/2008 15:59:39 (CDT)

Note: Predictions are now using two ascent rates, one for below 45K feet and a second above that altitude. Check out the text printout below for the rates used.

Primary Launch Site Predictions

Track Files - Files available the evening prior to flight only

  • APRS Predicted Track
  • UI-View Track Overlay

EOSS-130 Prediction

Saturday July 26th, 2008
Deer Trail, Colorado

Confidence Level

See the Text Printout below for date of data acquisition.


Green Track = Ascent
Red Track = Descent
Prediction made with Balloon Track

Maps with MapPoint


Green Track = Ascent
Red Track = Descent
Red Circle = 20 nautical miles from DIA
Yellow Circle = Class B 30 nautical miles from DIA
Prediction made with Balloon Track

Maps with Google Earth

EOSS-130_predict_track.kml


Prediction

Balloon Track for Windows                                Version 1.9.5
__________________________________________________________________________

                              Flight Prediction

Wednesday, July 23, 2008          eoss-130    GFS-Short_08_07_26_1500Z.dat
2:52:09 PM                       Deer Trail                   wbaltrak.ini
__________________________________________________________________________

Winds DataFile
-----------------------
        Station: DEN
    Flight Date: 26-Jul-08 15:00
     Model Date: 23-Jul-08 12:00
DataFile Status: Intact 
 Intact Records: 18 
Corrupt Records: 0 

Grid Placement Data
-----------------------
 Reference Site: Punkin Center
       Latitude: 38.85208° lat.   
      Longitude: -103.70053° long.
       X_Offset: 25.00
       Y_Offset: 10.00
Grid Origin
       Latitude: 38.70725° lat.   
      Longitude: -104.16546° long.

Launch Site - Deer Trail
-----------------------
   Launch Point: 39.61137° lat.   -104.04255° long.
           Grid: X=6.54 Y=62.43
    Ascent Rate: 1400 feet per minute
   Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute
       Altitude: 5205 feet

Maximums Enroute
-----------------------
Distance to LOS: 403.1 Mi.
  Maximum Range: 24.6 Mi.
  Maximum Winds: 65.0 mph from 260° at 40,863 feet altitude

Burst Data
-----------------------
    Burst Point: 39.65132° lat.  -103.76641° long.
           Grid: X=21.2 Y=65.2
     Burst Time: 87.8 minutes
 Burst Altitude: 95,000 feet
  Burst Bearing: 79.3°
    Burst Range: 14.9 Mi.

Predicted Landing Site
-----------------------
  Landing Point: 39.67539° lat.  -103.60004° long.
           Grid: X=30.0 Y=66.8
       Altitude: 4500 feet
    Flight Time: 129 Minutes
        Bearing: 79.2° True
          Range: 23.9 Mi.
__________________________________________________________________________

                Bear Rng  EL. Balloon Vertical                                     Dist. Bear   Range VOR
 Time      Alt   Deg  Mi. Deg Trk Spd    FPM   Latitude  Longitude  GridX   GridY to LOS  Mag    NM    ID
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     < 1  5205   43    1   76  43   4   1400   39.6114  -104.0425    6.54   62.43    <1    89    27   FQF
       1  6729   43    1   76  40   9   1400   39.6121  -104.0416    6.59   62.48    53    89    27   FQF
       2  8547   41    1   67 352   9   1400   39.6143  -104.0393    6.71   62.63    78    89    27   FQF
       4 10472   20    1   67 319  11   1400   39.6173  -104.0398    6.68   62.83    98    89    27   FQF
       5 12513  357    1   66 278   8   1400   39.6202  -104.0431    6.51   63.03   115    88    27   FQF
       7 14682  340    1   69 256   8   1400   39.6206  -104.0469    6.30   63.06   131    88    27   FQF
       8 16991  323    1   72 265   6   1400   39.6198  -104.0510    6.09   63.01   146    88    27   FQF
      10 19465  312    1   73 244   4   1400   39.6196  -104.0543    5.91   62.99   161    89    27   FQF
      12 22136  305    1   74 186   6   1400   39.6188  -104.0564    5.80   62.94   175    89    27   FQF
      14 25046  292    1   78 122  13   1400   39.6158  -104.0568    5.78   62.73   189    89    27   FQF
      16 28274  277    1   86  91  28   1400   39.6120  -104.0489    6.20   62.47   204    89    27   FQF
      19 31906   89    1   80  82  40   1400   39.6117  -104.0261    7.41   62.45   220    89    28   FQF
      22 36040   84    3   64  79  53   1400   39.6156  -103.9894    9.36   62.72   236    88    30   FQF
      25 40863   81    6   49  80  65   1400   39.6240  -103.9333   12.35   63.30   254    87    32   FQF
      32 46778   81   13   31  83  43    868   39.6423  -103.7965   19.62   64.57   274   251    27   TXC
      42 54800   81   20   25  82  16    868   39.6537  -103.6728   26.19   65.35   300   251    21   TXC
      58 68760   82   24   26 270  14    868   39.6621  -103.5929   30.44   65.93   339   251    18   TXC
      80 88133   79   19   39 259  31    868   39.6624  -103.6909   25.23   65.95   387   253    22   TXC
      88 95000   79   15   49 259  31    868   39.6513  -103.7664   21.21   65.18   403   252    26   TXC
      89 88133   79   14   47 259  31  -6901   39.6499  -103.7759   20.71   65.09   389   252    26   TXC
      93 68760   78   13   42 270  14  -4382   39.6500  -103.7953   19.68   65.09   341   252    27   TXC
      98 54800   79   15   33  82  16  -3140   39.6523  -103.7732   20.85   65.25   302   252    26   TXC
     101 46778   79   17   25  83  43  -2592   39.6561  -103.7318   23.05   65.52   277   252    24   TXC
     103 40863   79   20   19  80  65  -2250   39.6631  -103.6790   25.86   66.00   257   253    22   TXC
     106 36040   79   22   15  79  53  -2004   39.6689  -103.6397   27.94   66.40   239   253    20   TXC
     108 31906   80   23   12  82  40  -1819   39.6718  -103.6115   29.44   66.60   223   253    18   TXC
     110 28274   80   24   10  91  28  -1675   39.6715  -103.5924   30.45   66.58   207   253    18   TXC
     112 25046   81   25    8 122  13  -1560   39.6680  -103.5853   30.84   66.34   193   252    17   TXC
     114 22136   81   25    7 186   6  -1465   39.6652  -103.5857   30.81   66.14   179   251    17   TXC
     116 19465   81   24    6 244   4  -1385   39.6644  -103.5879   30.70   66.08   165   251    17   TXC
     118 16991   81   24    5 265   6  -1316   39.6641  -103.5914   30.51   66.07   150   251    18   TXC
     120 14682   81   24    4 256   8  -1256   39.6633  -103.5959   30.27   66.01   136   251    18   TXC
     122 12513   81   24    3 278   8  -1203   39.6638  -103.6004   30.04   66.05   120   251    18   TXC
     124 10472   80   24    2 319  11  -1156   39.6673  -103.6043   29.82   66.29   104   252    18   TXC
     125  8547   80   24    1 352   9  -1114   39.6711  -103.6050   29.79   66.55    86   253    18   TXC
     127  6729   79   24    1  40   9  -1076   39.6739  -103.6019   29.95   66.74    64   253    18   TXC
     129  4500   79   24   -1  43   4  -1032   39.6754  -103.6000   30.05   66.85     1   254    18   TXC

FQF = Falcon CO, TXC = Thurman CO

 


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Notes:

1.) Errors - On rare occasions there are errors noted in the data file downloaded for the prediction. The errors are identified on the server end, not on the Balloon Track processing end. When I see this type of error I will note it in the prediction. If the resulting forecast makes no sense, I'll not post it. But, if the resulting prediction does fit within the parameters of  a series of other predictions I'll probably post it with the warning notation. So, if you see a prediction with a warning tag, consider it suspect but possibly accurate.

 

maintained by Rick von Glahn


 

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