Confidence Levels (Medium)
 |
One model disagrees with the others
Example |
In the example predictions below the NAM and AFWS
models are in agreement but the GFS is significantly different. Note that the
NAM and AFWS models are not EXACTLY the same but they are very close. I use the
mark one eyeball to take note of the trajectory's various curves and abrupt
changes in direction. Even if the touchdown points are close, if the track to
get there is wildly different then I consider the models in disagreement.
Maps
Here are three predictions made at the same time on maps showing a track for
the same date and time in the future.
| Date Prediction Made |
July 13, 2006 22:40 UTC |
| Date of Flight (actually the UTC time of the model's
prediction) |
July 15, 2006 12:00 UTC |
GFS Short Range Prediction
NAM 40 KM
AFWS 45 KM
Raw Data and Prediction Output
GFS Short
Raw Data
YR: 2006 MON: 07 DAY: 15 HOUR: 12 AT POSITION: 104.6 76.0 LAT.: 39.87 LON.:-104.67 ELEV: 1656 m
PRSS: .8223E+03
MSLP: .1020E+04
TPP6: .0000E+00
UMOF: -.1220E+00
VMOF: -.8887E-01
SHTF: -.7144E+02
DSWF: .0000E+00
RH2M: .4698E+02
U10M: .2810E+01
V10M: .6800E+00
T02M: .2908E+03
TCLD: .6499E+00
SHGT: .1839E+04
CAPE: .0000E+00
CINH: .0000E+00
LISD: .2768E+03
LIB4: .1496E+01
PBLH: .1695E+03
PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD
HPA M C C DEG M/S
E = Estimated Surface Height
822. 1839. 17.6 6.2 231.7 2.9
800. 2075. 22.5 4.5 230.8 6.0
750. 2633. 20.2 .1 240.2 3.6
700. 3223. 17.4 -5.0 220.9 1.2
650. 3849. 12.1 -8.6 144.0 .5
600. 4512. 6.3 -15.6 50.6 1.2
550. 5217. .1 -19.0 24.1 3.6
500. 5971. -6.2 -27.0 32.6 3.3
450. 6785. -12.0 -36.9 30.4 4.5
400. 7674. -18.5 -47.0 36.4 4.3
350. 8655. -26.2 -51.9 24.7 6.0
300. 9751. -34.1 -59.2 17.6 7.2
250. 11003. -42.5 -59.0 22.9 13.2
200. 12475. -52.9 -64.1 16.9 16.3
150. 14284. -62.8 -78.1 8.2 9.4
100. 16749. -67.4 -103.1 272.2 .7
50. 20986. -60.0 -273.1 91.3 7.8
20. 26887. -49.5 -273.1 92.1 17.1
HEIGHT DT/DZ TDIFF CRITICAL INVERSION
1839. .002 1.2
2075. .032 7.6 ****
2633. .006 3.4 ****
3223. .005 3.2 ****
3849. .002 1.0
4512. .001 .7
5217. .001 .7
5971. .002 1.3
6785. .003 2.7
7674. .003 2.8
8655. .003 2.5
9751. .003 3.8
11003. .004 5.6
12475. .004 6.1
14284. .007 12.9 ****
16749. .014 35.4 ****
20986. .025 **** ****
26887. .031 **** ****
---end raw data---
Balloon Track for Windows Version 1.9.5
__________________________________________________________________________
Flight Prediction
Thursday, July 13, 2006 EOSS-107 Profile_06_07_15_1200Z.dat
4:50:18 PM Deer Trail wbaltrak.ini
__________________________________________________________________________
Winds DataFile
-----------------------
Station: UNK
Date: 1200Z 15 07 2006
DataFile Status: Intact
Intact Records: 18
Corrupt Records: 0
Grid Placement Data
-----------------------
Reference Site: Deer Trail
Latitude: 39.6114° lat.
Longitude: -104.0426° long.
X_Offset: 33.00
Y_Offset: 58.00
Grid Origin
Latitude: 38.7714° lat.
Longitude: -104.6629° long.
Launch Site - Deer Trail
-----------------------
Launch Point: 39.6114° lat. -104.0426° long.
Grid: X=33.00 Y=58.00
Ascent Rate: 1000 feet per minute
Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute
Altitude: 5205 feet
VOR Station - Denver CO
-----------------------
Latitude: 39.8125° lat.
Longitude: -104.6607° long.
Magnetic Offset: -11.0° from True Degrees
Maximums Enroute
-----------------------
Distance to LOS: 403.1 Mi.
Maximum Range: 23.3 Mi.
Maximum Winds: 38.0 mph from 92° at 88,212 feet altitude
Burst Data
-----------------------
Burst Point: 39.4539° lat. -104.2791° long.
Grid: X=20.5 Y=47.1
Burst Time: 89.8 minutes
Burst Altitude: 95,000 feet
Burst Bearing: 229.3°
Burst Range: 16.6 Mi.
Predicted Landing Site
-----------------------
Landing Point: 39.3797° lat. -104.3378° long.
Grid: X=17.4 Y=42.0
Altitude: 4500 feet
Flight Time: 131 Minutes
Bearing: 224.6° True
Range: 22.4 Mi.
__________________________________________________________________________
Bear Rng EL. Vertical Dist. Bearing Range VOR
Time Alt Deg Mi. Deg FPM Latitude Longitude to LOS Mag NM ID
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
< 1 5255 52 1 62 1000 39.6114 -104.0425 10 102 31 DEN
2 6808 52 1 62 1000 39.6128 -104.0402 54 102 31 DEN
3 8638 51 1 49 1000 39.6164 -104.0344 79 101 31 DEN
5 10574 54 1 51 1000 39.6183 -104.0302 99 101 31 DEN
7 12628 53 1 57 1000 39.6194 -104.0289 116 100 31 DEN
10 14803 50 1 63 1000 39.6198 -104.0293 132 100 31 DEN
12 17116 50 1 70 1000 39.6188 -104.0310 147 101 31 DEN
14 19590 66 1 79 1000 39.6144 -104.0335 161 101 31 DEN
17 22260 99 1 84 1000 39.6106 -104.0367 176 102 31 DEN
20 25177 172 1 83 1000 39.6045 -104.0413 190 102 31 DEN
23 28396 195 1 78 1000 39.5982 -104.0472 205 103 31 DEN
27 31991 200 2 71 1000 39.5880 -104.0534 220 104 31 DEN
31 36099 199 3 64 1000 39.5729 -104.0598 236 106 31 DEN
36 40928 201 5 52 1000 39.5407 -104.0775 254 110 31 DEN
42 46864 199 9 42 1000 39.4914 -104.0970 275 115 32 DEN
50 54951 197 12 39 1000 39.4508 -104.1043 300 119 34 DEN
64 68852 194 11 46 1000 39.4506 -104.0956 339 119 34 DEN
83 88212 217 14 49 1000 39.4519 -104.1985 388 124 30 DEN
90 95000 229 17 45 1000 39.4539 -104.2791 403 130 28 DEN
91 88212 231 17 42 6914 39.4542 -104.2907 389 130 27 DEN
95 68852 233 18 34 4392 39.4545 -104.3142 341 132 27 DEN
100 54951 233 18 28 3151 39.4544 -104.3114 302 132 27 DEN
103 46864 231 19 23 2597 39.4388 -104.3142 277 133 28 DEN
105 40928 228 20 18 2253 39.4168 -104.3228 257 136 28 DEN
108 36099 227 21 15 2007 39.4008 -104.3315 239 137 29 DEN
110 31991 226 22 13 1823 39.3925 -104.3350 223 138 29 DEN
112 28396 226 22 11 1680 39.3864 -104.3386 208 139 30 DEN
114 25177 225 22 9 1564 39.3824 -104.3424 193 139 30 DEN
116 22260 225 23 8 1469 39.3782 -104.3454 179 140 30 DEN
118 19590 225 23 7 1389 39.3755 -104.3477 165 140 30 DEN
120 17116 225 23 5 1320 39.3722 -104.3496 151 140 30 DEN
122 14803 225 23 4 1259 39.3713 -104.3509 137 140 30 DEN
124 12628 225 23 3 1206 39.3717 -104.3513 121 140 30 DEN
125 10574 225 23 2 1158 39.3727 -104.3502 105 140 30 DEN
127 8638 225 23 1 1116 39.3743 -104.3464 87 140 30 DEN
129 6808 225 23 1 1077 39.3777 -104.3411 65 139 30 DEN
131 4500 225 22 -1 1032 39.3797 -104.3378 1 139 30 DEN
NAM 40 KM
Raw Data
YR: 2006 MON: 07 DAY: 15 HOUR: 12 AT POSITION: 84.0 63.4 LAT.: 39.87 LON.:-104.67 ELEV: 1656 m
MSLP: .1013E+04
TMPS: .2912E+03
TPP3: .0000E+00
CPP3: .0000E+00
SOLT: .2947E+03
SOLW: .3300E+03
T02M: .2964E+03
RH2M: .3420E+02
U10M: .8813E+00
V10M: .3655E+01
P10M: .3117E+03
PRSS: .8415E+03
WESD: .0000E+00
CSNO: .0000E+00
CICE: .0000E+00
CFZR: .0000E+00
CRAI: .0000E+00
LHTF: .2521E+01
SHTF: -.1578E+02
USTR: .4320E+00
VSBY: .2003E+05
RGHS: .8437E+00
LCLD: .0000E+00
MCLD: .6457E+01
HCLD: .0000E+00
TCLD: .6457E+01
DSWF: .3184E+02
WTMP: .2912E+03
CAPE: .0000E+00
CINH: -.3921E+03
LISD: .2776E+03
LIB4: .1871E+01
PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD
HPA M C C DEG M/S
E = Estimated Surface Height
841. 1626.E 23.3 6.6 189.5 3.8
825. 1798. 25.7 6.4 196.6 8.3
800. 2069. 25.9 4.9 215.8 10.3
775. 2347. 24.3 3.0 232.5 10.1
750. 2632. 22.3 .4 240.3 10.2
725. 2925. 20.0 -1.0 246.8 9.1
700. 3225. 17.5 -2.4 258.7 6.7
650. 3852. 12.1 -4.8 273.6 3.5
600. 4514. 6.7 -17.3 281.0 1.8
550. 5220. .5 -23.5 116.1 1.8
500. 5976. -4.8 -30.8 65.5 6.0
450. 6793. -11.5 -34.7 34.5 7.0
400. 7682. -18.5 -41.7 17.8 6.4
350. 8660. -27.3 -45.0 5.0 6.1
300. 9752. -34.2 -59.0 5.0 10.9
250. 11006. -43.1 -59.5 3.7 15.5
200. 12469. -54.4 -68.8 344.5 14.6
150. 14279. -61.5 -81.0 334.5 10.8
100. 16757. -66.1 -84.1 339.8 6.8
50. 20971. -62.1 -87.7 88.0 7.2
HEIGHT DT/DZ TDIFF CRITICAL INVERSION
1626. -.001 -.2
1798. .025 4.3 ****
2069. .011 3.0 ****
2347. .004 1.2
2632. .003 .8
2925. .002 .6
3225. .002 .5
3852. .001 .7
4514. .002 1.2
5220. .001 .8
5976. .003 2.5
6793. .002 1.5
7682. .002 2.1
8660. .001 1.0
9752. .005 5.3
11006. .004 4.8
12469. .003 4.6
14279. .010 17.4 ****
16757. .014 35.9 ****
20971. .023 96.9 ****
---end raw data---
Balloon Track for Windows Version 1.9.5
__________________________________________________________________________
Flight Prediction
Thursday, July 13, 2006 EOSS-107 Profile_06_07_15_1200Z.dat
4:52:59 PM Deer Trail wbaltrak.ini
__________________________________________________________________________
Winds DataFile
-----------------------
Station: UNK
Date: 1200Z 15 07 2006
DataFile Status: Intact
Intact Records: 20
Corrupt Records: 0
Grid Placement Data
-----------------------
Reference Site: Deer Trail
Latitude: 39.6114° lat.
Longitude: -104.0426° long.
X_Offset: 33.00
Y_Offset: 58.00
Grid Origin
Latitude: 38.7714° lat.
Longitude: -104.6629° long.
Launch Site - Deer Trail
-----------------------
Launch Point: 39.6114° lat. -104.0426° long.
Grid: X=33.00 Y=58.00
Ascent Rate: 1000 feet per minute
Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute
Altitude: 5205 feet
VOR Station - Denver CO
-----------------------
Latitude: 39.8125° lat.
Longitude: -104.6607° long.
Magnetic Offset: -11.0° from True Degrees
Maximums Enroute
-----------------------
Distance to LOS: 403.1 Mi.
Maximum Range: 23. Mi.
Maximum Winds: 35.0 mph from 4° at 36,109 feet altitude
Burst Data
-----------------------
Burst Point: 39.3926° lat. -104.1002° long.
Grid: X=30.0 Y=42.9
Burst Time: 89.8 minutes
Burst Altitude: 95,000 feet
Burst Bearing: 191.5°
Burst Range: 15.4 Mi.
Predicted Landing Site
-----------------------
Landing Point: 39.3034° lat. -104.091° long.
Grid: X=30.6 Y=36.7
Altitude: 4500 feet
Flight Time: 132 Minutes
Bearing: 186.9° True
Range: 21.4 Mi.
__________________________________________________________________________
Bear Rng EL. Vertical Dist. Bearing Range VOR
Time Alt Deg Mi. Deg FPM Latitude Longitude to LOS Mag NM ID
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
< 1 5255 10 1 52 1000 39.6115 -104.0425 10 102 31 DEN
< 1 5899 10 1 52 1000 39.6129 -104.0422 35 102 31 DEN
2 6788 15 1 38 1000 39.6168 -104.0407 54 101 31 DEN
2 7700 25 1 33 1000 39.6209 -104.0368 67 101 31 DEN
3 8635 34 1 32 1000 39.6240 -104.0315 79 100 31 DEN
4 9596 41 1 31 1000 39.6267 -104.0255 89 100 31 DEN
5 10581 46 2 31 1000 39.6286 -104.0198 99 99 32 DEN
7 12638 53 2 33 1000 39.6300 -104.0103 116 99 32 DEN
10 14810 58 2 37 1000 39.6297 -104.0049 132 99 32 DEN
12 17126 60 2 42 1000 39.6293 -104.0020 147 99 32 DEN
14 19606 57 2 49 1000 39.6303 -104.0048 161 99 32 DEN
17 22287 54 2 61 1000 39.6269 -104.0148 176 99 32 DEN
20 25203 68 1 73 1000 39.6176 -104.0230 190 100 32 DEN
23 28412 109 1 79 1000 39.6072 -104.0273 205 102 32 DEN
27 31995 147 1 75 1000 39.5952 -104.0287 220 103 32 DEN
31 36109 168 3 64 1000 39.5714 -104.0314 236 105 32 DEN
36 40909 176 6 50 1000 39.5310 -104.0351 254 109 33 DEN
42 46847 172 9 42 1000 39.4855 -104.0182 275 112 36 DEN
50 54977 167 12 38 1000 39.4432 -103.9915 300 114 38 DEN
64 68802 165 15 38 1000 39.3961 -103.9694 339 117 41 DEN
90 95000 192 15 48 1000 39.3926 -104.1002 403 123 36 DEN
96 68802 197 16 37 4387 39.3918 -104.1300 341 125 35 DEN
100 54977 195 17 29 3153 39.3769 -104.1229 302 125 36 DEN
103 46847 192 18 24 2596 39.3606 -104.1126 277 126 37 DEN
106 40909 190 19 19 2252 39.3404 -104.1051 257 127 38 DEN
108 36109 190 20 16 2008 39.3202 -104.1069 239 128 39 DEN
111 31995 190 21 13 1823 39.3072 -104.1084 223 129 40 DEN
113 28412 189 22 11 1680 39.3000 -104.1092 208 129 40 DEN
115 25203 190 22 9 1565 39.2934 -104.1120 194 130 40 DEN
117 22287 190 23 8 1470 39.2871 -104.1175 179 130 40 DEN
119 19606 191 23 7 1389 39.2846 -104.1246 165 131 40 DEN
121 17126 191 23 5 1320 39.2854 -104.1267 151 131 40 DEN
122 14810 191 23 4 1259 39.2851 -104.1245 137 131 40 DEN
124 12638 190 23 3 1206 39.2848 -104.1200 121 131 40 DEN
126 10581 189 23 2 1158 39.2861 -104.1119 105 130 41 DEN
127 9596 189 23 2 1136 39.2877 -104.1069 96 130 41 DEN
128 8635 188 22 1 1116 39.2901 -104.1015 87 129 41 DEN
129 7700 188 22 1 1096 39.2930 -104.0967 76 129 41 DEN
129 6788 187 22 1 1077 39.2968 -104.0931 64 129 41 DEN
130 5899 187 22 1 1059 39.3005 -104.0917 50 128 40 DEN
132 4500 187 21 -1 1032 39.3034 -104.0910 1 128 40 DEN
AFWS 45 KM
Raw Data
YR: 2006 MON: 07 DAY: 15 HOUR: 12 AT POSITION: 80.6 73.0 LAT.: 39.87 LON.:-104.67 ELEV: 1656 m
MSLP: .1012E+04
T02M: .2939E+03
TPP3: .0000E+00
RH2M: .5231E+02
U10M: .4565E+01
V10M: .3273E+01
PRSS: .8388E+03
CSNO: .0000E+00
CICE: .0000E+00
CFZR: .0000E+00
CRAI: .0000E+00
VSBY: .4020E+05
PTYP: .0000E+00
TCLD: .0000E+00
SHGT: .1677E+04
PBLH: .4878E+03
SHTF: -.4121E+02
PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD
HPA M C C DEG M/S
E = Estimated Surface Height
839. 1677. 20.8 10.7 228.2 5.6
800. 2093. 22.7 7.5 244.9 14.0
750. 2653. 20.3 3.8 249.2 9.7
700. 3243. 15.5 1.9 254.2 6.2
650. 3867. 9.9 .2 256.0 3.6
600. 4525. 4.0 -3.4 234.2 2.1
550. 5226. -1.3 -12.1 193.5 1.2
500. 5978. -6.9 -27.2 124.0 .7
450. 6791. -12.6 -44.9 18.6 1.3
400. 7678. -19.2 -47.7 8.9 4.1
350. 8658. -26.1 -51.5 2.7 7.3
300. 9758. -33.3 -53.9 8.0 11.4
250. 11014. -42.4 -57.4 5.0 14.8
200. 12486. -52.9 -65.5 357.3 15.8
150. 14294. -63.3 -76.8 345.1 10.5
100. 16737. -70.5 -80.6 3.2 3.6
50. 20813. -72.7 -80.6 65.6 3.0
HEIGHT DT/DZ TDIFF CRITICAL INVERSION
1677. .001 .4
2093. .015 6.3 ****
2653. .006 3.2 ****
3243. .002 1.1
3867. .001 .5
4525. .001 .6
5226. .002 1.7
5978. .003 2.2
6791. .003 2.8
7678. .003 2.6
8658. .004 3.5
9758. .004 4.8
11014. .004 4.5
12486. .004 6.0
14294. .007 12.1 ****
16737. .012 30.3 ****
20813. .020 80.6 ****
---end raw data---
Balloon Track for Windows Version 1.9.5
__________________________________________________________________________
Flight Prediction
Thursday, July 13, 2006 EOSS-107 Profile_06_07_15_1200Z.dat
4:55:12 PM Deer Trail wbaltrak.ini
__________________________________________________________________________
Winds DataFile
-----------------------
Station: UNK
Date: 1200Z 15 07 2006
DataFile Status: Intact
Intact Records: 17
Corrupt Records: 0
Grid Placement Data
-----------------------
Reference Site: Deer Trail
Latitude: 39.6114° lat.
Longitude: -104.0426° long.
X_Offset: 33.00
Y_Offset: 58.00
Grid Origin
Latitude: 38.7714° lat.
Longitude: -104.6629° long.
Launch Site - Deer Trail
-----------------------
Launch Point: 39.6114° lat. -104.0426° long.
Grid: X=33.00 Y=58.00
Ascent Rate: 1000 feet per minute
Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute
Altitude: 5205 feet
VOR Station - Denver CO
-----------------------
Latitude: 39.8125° lat.
Longitude: -104.6607° long.
Magnetic Offset: -11.0° from True Degrees
Maximums Enroute
-----------------------
Distance to LOS: 403.1 Mi.
Maximum Range: 20.9 Mi.
Maximum Winds: 35.0 mph from 357° at 40,965 feet altitude
Burst Data
-----------------------
Burst Point: 39.4075° lat. -104.0421° long.
Grid: X=33.1 Y=43.9
Burst Time: 89.8 minutes
Burst Altitude: 95,000 feet
Burst Bearing: 179.9°
Burst Range: 14.1 Mi.
Predicted Landing Site
-----------------------
Landing Point: 39.3282° lat. -104.0081° long.
Grid: X=35.0 Y=38.5
Altitude: 4500 feet
Flight Time: 132 Minutes
Bearing: 174.6° True
Range: 19.6 Mi.
__________________________________________________________________________
Bear Rng EL. Vertical Dist. Bearing Range VOR
Time Alt Deg Mi. Deg FPM Latitude Longitude to LOS Mag NM ID
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
< 1 5255 48 1 41 1000 39.6115 -104.0424 10 102 31 DEN
2 6867 48 1 41 1000 39.6149 -104.0375 55 101 31 DEN
3 8704 60 1 27 1000 39.6207 -104.0213 80 100 32 DEN
5 10640 63 2 27 1000 39.6244 -104.0089 99 99 32 DEN
7 12687 65 2 30 1000 39.6263 -104.0002 116 99 32 DEN
10 14846 67 3 33 1000 39.6273 -103.9950 132 99 33 DEN
12 17146 66 3 37 1000 39.6289 -103.9921 147 98 33 DEN
14 19613 64 3 42 1000 39.6306 -103.9915 161 98 33 DEN
17 22280 62 3 47 1000 39.6313 -103.9929 176 98 33 DEN
20 25190 64 3 53 1000 39.6294 -103.9938 190 98 33 DEN
23 28406 73 3 59 1000 39.6225 -103.9952 205 99 33 DEN
27 32014 95 2 64 1000 39.6085 -103.9962 220 101 33 DEN
31 36135 131 3 63 1000 39.5829 -104.0009 237 103 33 DEN
36 40965 157 5 53 1000 39.5446 -104.0052 254 107 34 DEN
42 46896 165 8 43 1000 39.4946 -104.0019 275 111 36 DEN
50 54911 165 11 39 1000 39.4516 -103.9870 300 114 38 DEN
63 68284 167 13 42 1000 39.4258 -103.9887 338 116 39 DEN
90 95000 180 14 50 1000 39.4075 -104.0421 403 119 38 DEN
96 68284 183 14 40 4333 39.4032 -104.0544 340 120 37 DEN
100 54911 183 15 32 3148 39.3950 -104.0550 302 121 38 DEN
103 46896 181 16 26 2599 39.3785 -104.0492 277 121 38 DEN
106 40965 181 18 21 2255 39.3563 -104.0477 257 123 39 DEN
108 36135 181 19 17 2009 39.3372 -104.0499 239 124 40 DEN
111 32014 182 20 14 1824 39.3232 -104.0524 223 125 41 DEN
113 28406 182 20 12 1680 39.3149 -104.0530 208 126 41 DEN
115 25190 182 21 10 1565 39.3105 -104.0539 194 126 41 DEN
117 22280 182 21 9 1470 39.3091 -104.0545 179 126 41 DEN
119 19613 182 21 7 1389 39.3097 -104.0555 165 126 41 DEN
121 17146 182 21 6 1320 39.3110 -104.0551 151 126 41 DEN
122 14846 182 21 5 1260 39.3123 -104.0528 137 126 41 DEN
124 12687 181 21 4 1207 39.3131 -104.0484 122 125 41 DEN
126 10640 180 20 3 1160 39.3147 -104.0410 105 125 41 DEN
128 8704 178 20 2 1117 39.3180 -104.0299 87 124 42 DEN
129 6867 176 20 1 1079 39.3234 -104.0150 65 123 42 DEN
132 4500 175 20 -1 1032 39.3282 -104.0081 1 123 42 DEN
| 
